1.2 Monsoon 2020 - Expectations for Kerala

The monsoon forecast is actually available nationwide and as per the forecast, India will likely have a normal monsoon, with a chance of “above normal” rain in August and September. Also, Regional disparities are possible. In 2018, a similar long-range forecast was made, but the 2018 monsoon triggered floods in most areas in India. Statistics on the previous year’s precipitation are given below.

Presently there is no local level rainfall forecasting in India. Fig shows the comparison of southwest monsoon expectation by IMD and the rainfall received in Kerala during 2011-2019. The difference can be seen in the chart below.

From 2005-2019, in this 15 years 9 times the precipitation was more than anticipated and 6 times not exactly expected precipitation and this can be found in the figure.

The average rainfall received per month is given below.

The average annual rainfall map for the state is attached in Annexure 8. At present, it is preposterous to expect to anticipate any data on high force precipitation that can cause floods and other catastrophic events. Along these lines, in view of the past experience and desire on accepting high precipitation, related divisions and open is relied upon to take productive careful steps.