1.3 Forecast of the Onset Date of Southwest Monsoon 2020 over Kerala

The southwest monsoon sets in over the Kerala coast by 1st June. The date of onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is crucial in the meteorological calendar of India as it marks the beginning of the rainy season for the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has informed that the 2020 South- West monsoon will reach Kerala by June 5th. They predict chances of deviation of plus or minus four days. The detailed document of IMD prediction is available in the link.

https://mausam.imd.gov.in/backend/assets/press_release_pdf/PRESS_RELEASE_MONSOON_ONSET_OVER_KERALA_2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1dRt3Jug8EIAqgdFPHSgcuj2S7J9ktzu0USFExeFMlWsMq45o0UWwcd8Q

SkyMet, which is a private weather forecasting agency, has predicted the arrival of South-West Monsoon in Kerala by 28th May. The link to their predictions based on models is given below. The model error is estimated to be plus or minus two days.

https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/the-onset-of-southwest-monsoon2020-over-kerala-likely-before-date-andaman-sea-repeats2019/?fbclid=IwAR2RGHNpuGpmfQiWHt_FWajjWjdCkMH4xY7WNNbfdDHmUFJ9Q3cHEFCnhTg

Another private agency Weather Channel has predicted the arrival of South-West Monsoon in Kerala by 31st May. The detailed analysis of Weather Channel is provided in the link.

https://www.ibm.com/blogs/digital-transformation/in-en/